UBS On-Air: Market Moves

Shane drops by to outline the closing messages of Congressional and Gubernatorial candidates with just days to go before Election Day, along with an assessment of current polling. Plus, a look at the Pentagon’s plans to update the continuity and operational resilience strategy of military bases across the US. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

European Central Bank President Lagarde's decision to resign early (perhaps to spend more time doing book tours) was not unexpected, even if the timing was uncertain. The succession process is driven by political horse trading, not tests of competence.

Following this week’s FOMC policy meeting, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by to share timely reflections and CIO’s outlook for monetary policy. We also touch on the Q3 US GDP print, and take a health-check on the overall US economy ahead of Election Day. Host: Daniel Cassidy

On this week’s episode, Burkhard shares takeaways from a recent visit to the Gulf States and highlights how governance continues to attract investments, technology, connectivity, and more (despite recent geopolitical disruptions). Burkhard then takes us to Europe to outline why a structural investment case exists (though not where you might expect). Plus, a review of factors that support continued strong performance across European markets.

There were no surprises from the US monetary policy decision. At the press conference, Federal Reserve Chair Warsh signaled a desire to reduce the number of policy meetings in 2027—less policy flexibility at a time of economic and political turmoil is an interesting choice. The way is still open for further rate increases.

A look at what has been driving markets, how the outlook is evolving, and the key opportunities and risks investors should be thinking about looking ahead. Featured are Jeremy Zirin, Senior Portfolio Manager of the House View Equity Portfolios and Head of the Private Client US Equity Team, and Dominic Schagar, Lead Equity Investment Specialist at UBS Asset Management.

With global data center power demand expected to rise considerably over the next few decades, we explore the scale of anticipated global demand and the scope of energy resources that will contribute to demand fulfillment. We also touch on investment considerations around this theme, along with the risks to be mindful of. Tyler Rosenlicht is a Portfolio Manager for Global Listed Infrastructure and serves as Head of Natural Resource Equities at Cohen & Steers. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets are expecting no change in US monetary policy today. Federal Reserve Chair Warsh’s communication style does not lend itself to offering clarity as to the policy outlook, either.

A wide-ranging conversation on the implications of the current macro environment and higher yields to fixed income return and positioning, including thoughts on widening credit spreads, implications of US corporate debt maturity, volume of AI bond supply, and other risk considerations. Lotfi Karoui, Managing Director, Multi-Asset Strategist, and Head of Client Solutions and Analytics at PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

In part one of a two part mini-podcast series, Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to provide an overview of the most pertinent questions heard from clients and investors as it relates to the impacts of AI to the US economy. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets may be becalmed in anticipation of tomorrow’s US monetary policy decision. However, the meeting is expected to leave interest rates unchanged and investors are skeptical that Federal Reserve Chair Warsh will offer any useful insights at the press conference. Insight may come with subsequent remarks by those markets regard as the Fed’s intellectual leaders.

Markets continue to weigh the cost of and potential returns of AI-buildout, the path forward for interest rates, Q3 corporate earnings, and the quickly approaching US midterm elections. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, joins to assess this range of factors, along with shares the latest positioning recommendations and messaging per the latest UBS House View update. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Markets’ optimism bias has been given some life by news that Iran and Saudi Arabia are to hold talks, with Pakistan and Turkey mediating. Oil prices have dropped a little on the news. US President Trump also made comments on Iran but investors give less weight to these. US retail diesel prices keep rising and gasoline prices have stopped falling, which is assumed to constrain Trump’s ability to act.

The AI boom is being financed very differently on each side of the market. This episode examines the contrasting funding models behind AI supply and demand, the role of private capital in sustaining compute consumption, and the implications for investors as spending continues to expand.

Join David Lefkowitz, Head of Equities Americas, each month for a look at the factors that are driving performance across US equities. We also cover risk considerations, thematic focuses, and positioning recommendations from the UBS Chief Investment Office (as outlined within the latest UBS House View). This month, David reflects on the factors that are driving equity markets, including oil prices, AI, Fed monetary policy, Q3 corporate earnings, and the upcoming US midterm election. Plus, an outlook for equities into year-end, and the latest positioning views. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Technology sector equity movements are attracting attention, but economists retain an appropriate degree of aloofness. The pattern of consumers reducing savings to finance consumption has been fairly universal across advanced economies. Wealth effects from the technology sector have not been as universal. As wealth effects are meaningless without changes of behavior to translate them into real economic action, the global similarities of behavior hint at consumers having a muted dependence on rising equity markets.

With Election Day less than two weeks away, Shane drops by to share an assessment of how key Congressional races across the country are shaping up (and where donors are applying resources). We also cover recent reports of renewed trilateral talks amongst the US, Ukraine, Russia to end the conflict. Plus, a look at a new program initiative by the White House to identify and combat fraud. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Oil prices continue to drift higher. US retail diesel prices are still near all-time highs, with no sign of mitigation from US administration policies. The news that the US is asking some of its diplomats to leave Saudi Arabia is not necessarily a positive signal about regional stability. Consumers should continue to consume despite the energy costs for the remainder of this year. Next year is when risks increase.

A quarterly check-up on the US macroeconomic environment, including consumer spending trends, the condition of the labor market, the road ahead for monetary policy, and the current landscape for deal-making. Featured is Paul Hsiao, Senior Asset Allocation Strategist Americas, UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A wide-ranging conversation on the implications of the current macro environment and higher yields to fixed income return and positioning, including thoughts around where pockets of opportunity and concern exist. Featured are Lindsay Rosner, Managing Director and Head of Multi-Sector Investing within Goldman Sachs Asset Management (GSAM)’s Fixed Income and Liquidity Solutions business, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Oil prices rose above USD110 per barrel. Markets and politicians focus on round numbers, so while a small price increase is not directly important, the move does have potential consequences. The US administration is very sensitive to higher oil prices, and US retail diesel prices remain near their all-time highs. Investors’ concerns will likely focus on whether this will produce US concessions to Iran, or more aggressive central bank action.

AI concerns weakened Asian equity markets, after a data centre’s market launch performed poorly. The fact that one company had such a broad reaction might indicate a degree of investor nervousness. Economists are less concerned—economic wealth effects from the AI story seem modest, and a slowing of real world AI investment might benefit other sectors of the economy.

Despite Q3 corporate earnings results rolling in, investors over the past week have seemed more focused on the sustainability of the AI trade and cost of funding. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the factors that are driving investor sentiment, along with what the inflation and retail sales data reveals about the current macro environment. Plus, thoughts on portfolio positioning. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Rising interest rates are testing the balance sheets of highly levered AI infrastructure providers, but are they weakening the underlying demand for compute? This episode separates financing risk from demand growth and examines why compute pricing remains a critical signal for cloud infrastructure and semiconductor stocks.

China’s officially reported third quarter GDP growth was 4.5% y/y. That means that this year’s officially reported growth is likely to hit the officially set growth target. However, despite a stronger September China retail sales number, the domestic economy remains lackluster. Exports remain the growth driver. China has been fortunate that US companies have been adept at avoiding some tariffs, though ongoing economic nationalism (a form of scapegoat economics) threatens this pattern of growth.

Following what was a challenging quarter for fixed income investors, Leslie Falconio, Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, reflects on Q3 performance drivers, and shares a performance outlook. We also discuss CIO’s current positioning recommendations across the asset class. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Europe’s government bond markets have faced growing pressure from higher energy prices, renewed inflation concerns, and increased scrutiny of public finances. The gap between French and German 10-year government bond yields recently reached its widest level since the 2011 European sovereign debt crisis as investors focused on France’s deficit and borrowing trajectory. Could the strains spread across the Eurozone, and where is the volatility creating opportunities? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Christopher Swann speaks with Frederick Mellors, Head of Global Fixed Income, about the growing divide between European sovereign borrowers, the European Central Bank’s policy dilemma, and the case for selectivity across government and corporate bonds.

US monetary policy is in focus, with Federal Reserve Chair Warsh refusing to give forward guidance on policy at the IMF meetings—then giving forward guidance of a sort. Warsh failed to sound hawkish. The word of Warsh carries relatively little weight, but this chimes with Fed President William’s earlier remarks. Expectations for an October rate increase are fading.

On this week’s episode, Burkhard acknowledges the fourth anniversary of the current bull market and weighs whether equities have further room to run, mindful of the impacts to the recent increase in the cost of capital. Burkhard also underscores the importance of corporate earnings to the health of an economy.

The US inflation print underscored some established trends. While consumer price inflation has a large fantasy component to it, it seems fairly clear that real incomes have stagnated since January 2025. That means that increases in spending depend on people getting side-hustle employment, being willing to cut savings rates, or being prepared to use their stock of savings. Today’s retail sales data is another signal of how willing consumers are to utilize savings.

Steve joins Jason for a wide-ranging conversation which spans the US macroeconomic environment, equity market performance, the AI capex cycle, Fed monetary policy, and market risk considerations. Plus, an exchange of views on portfolio positioning. Steve Chiavarone is Chief Investment Officer for Global Equities at Federated Hermes, and is a member of the UBS Research Advisory Board. Jason Draho is Head of Asset Allocation Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

China’s September inflation data was not especially exciting. Food prices kept the consumer price inflation figures moderate (food is nearly 30% of China’s consumer price basket). China is not a noted food exporter, so this has little global bearing. China’s consumers are not responding to low inflation with much enthusiasm.

This edition of UBS Election Watch looks beyond Washington precisely because that is usually where most of the attention is focused during midterm elections. Often overlooked is the impact of US elections on other countries and the impact of state and local elections on US policy. Kurt Reiman, Head of Fixed Income Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office, and Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisors with Governmental Affairs US, discuss the scope of impact, along with the latest outcome scenarios. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Chip manufacturers have been experiencing equity price volatility after Broadcom’s chief executive drew “casino” parallels. (US Treasury Secretary “House” Bessent has already demonstrated the danger of making that analogy). The global economic impact of this noise is not that significant—although it may matter for the South Korean and Taiwanese economies.

Following what was a relatively quiet week for investors, the weeks ahead promise to deliver much for investors to digest - spanning Q3 corporate earnings, September inflation and retail sales data, and more. All of this while risk factors such as higher rates and oil prices remain top of mind for investors. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, discusses these factors and how to think about positioning your portfolio. Host: Daniel Cassidy

A lot happened around the oil market: US president Trump announced a deal with Russian President Putin to buy Russian diesel; the Houthis attacked Riyadh airport in Saudi Arabia; Trump announced an “energy ceasefire” between Russia and Ukraine; Russia subsequently attacked Ukraine energy facilities; the US reportedly threatened to stop arms sales to Ukraine if they attacked Russian energy facilities.

Over the past few years, markets have looked beyond a shifting economic backdrop and focused on the prospect of exceptional earnings growth. This episode explores why AI investment has become a key driver of corporate profits, how private capital is fueling demand for compute, and whether the current earnings outlook can be sustained.

Marc Lipschultz is Co-Chief Executive Officer of Blue Owl Capital and a member of the firm’s board of directors. Marc drops by the 1285 podcast studio to share his perspective on how the landscape for private credit has evolved throughout the course of 2026. We also discuss where Blue Owl is finding opportunities across Real Assets, including within digital infrastructure. Plus, thoughts on the kinds of roles that a financial advisor should fulfill in the ‘era of the advisor’. Host: Daniel Cassidy

As the U.S. midterm elections are quickly approaching, Shane identifies the Senate races that he is closely watching, and what polling is currently pointing to. With the U.S. Supreme Court now back in session, we also review some notable cases on the docket. Plus, a look at how U.S. officials have been responding to reported public health concerns in Siberia. Featured is Shane Lieberman, Senior Governmental Affairs Advisor, Governmental Affairs US. Host: Daniel Cassidy

US President Trump’s social media account declared the US would not attack Iran before the midterm elections. Other actors in the war may launch attacks. The post does reveal the concern about the political costs of the war, and rekindled some of the optimism bias in markets. However, the political costs presumably shift after the midterms.

Derek Pines is a Senior Managing Director and Portfolio Manager at Bramshill Investments. Derek joins Frank Sileo, Senior Fixed Income Strategist Americas from the UBS Chief Investment Office, for a comprehensive discussion on the preferred securities market. They cover a performance update and outlook, risk considerations, positioning views, and more.

Crude oil prices and diesel prices are up (there seems to be uncertainty about whether last Friday’s pledge to release diesel reserves is actually just confirming previously announced reserve releases). Bonds and equities do not like this. Central banks have pretended that they can do something about oil prices, which worries investors. If central banks want to offset inflation from an oil shock, they need to create a recession (or near recession) in the non-oil economy via aggressively restrictive policy. That does not favor bonds or equities.

With the next Fed policy meeting just a few weeks away, Andrew Dubinsky, US Economist from the UBS Chief Investment Office, drops by the studio to share CIO’s expectations and the factors that will likely inform the central bank’s policy decision. We also cover the health of the US labor market, GDP picture, and the latest on inflation. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The political costs of the Gulf war are evident—US President Trump suggested removing the federal tax on gasoline. Gasoline prices (unlike diesel) feed directly into US consumer price calculations. However, even supposing Congress was in session long enough to pass the legislation, a less than 19% reduction per US gallon has to be considered against a price increase of over USD 1.25 since the war began. But sensitivity to the political cost may encourage optimism about US attitudes toward a deal with Iran.

A wide-ranging conversation on the current rate environment, the road ahead for monetary policy, issuance implications, and the landscape for broader fixed income investing, recorded at the PIMCO studios in Newport Beach, California. Featured are Mike Cudzil, Managing Director and Generalist Portfolio Manager at PIMCO, and Leslie Falconio, Managing Director and Head of Taxable Fixed Income Strategy Americas with the UBS Chief Investment Office. Host: Daniel Cassidy

Investors and the Fed got a dose of relatively good economic data last week, yet interest rates rose again. Rising yields remains a dominant market story, however with a light calendar for economic data this week, and Q3 earnings season starting next week, macro might take a back seat in the near-term. Jason Draho, Head of Asset Allocation Americas from UBS Chief Investment Office, weighs in on the current environment and how to position accordingly. Host: Daniel Cassidy

The US employment report offered few reliable facts for investors, other than the reminder that data is revised a lot. If markets listened to economists with the reverence they deserve, that would not be a surprise. Markets were surprised—revisions suggest a weaker employment position. The sense of an affordability crisis is likely to be reinforced—wage growth after adjusting for inflation is near zero, and after adjusting for inflation perceptions is probably negative.

As long-term US Treasury yields have climbed to levels not seen in more than two decades and today's AI investment boom draws comparisons with the internet buildout, the 1999 cycle increasingly offers a useful point of reference. This episode explores the parallels and key differences between the two periods, and examines what rising term premiums and fiscal dynamics could mean for rates and portfolio positioning.

Housing affordability is under pressure across many major cities. Yet the UBS Global Real Estate Bubble Index 2026 shows that housing markets are following increasingly different paths as accumulated financial wealth supports demand in prime residential segments. Is wealth overtaking income as a driver of demand? And how is that reshaping housing risk? In this episode of Across the Pond, host Belinda Ulander speaks with the index’s co-authors, Matthias Holzhey and Maciej Skoczek, about Zurich’s position at the top of the ranking, diverging trends across Europe, and the importance of selectivity for investors.

The US employment report has a wide range of estimates around the payrolls data. This is not surprising—labor market data precision is challenged by low response rates and structural changes in the way people work. The general expectation is for an OK report with stable unemployment.